PCE shows persistent inflation

Chart of PCE inflation above Fed 2% target with diverging U.S. stock gains and volatile European markets

Key Points

01PCE's headline and core readings kept inflation above the Fed's 2% objective, which trimmed odds of near-term Fed easing and shifted positioning.
02U.S. benchmarks closed higher after the release, with the S&P and Nasdaq leading gains while European markets lagged amid energy-driven volatility.
03Goldman's Q2 oil forecast cuts after a U.S.-Iran ceasefire coincided with intraday crude gains and heightened energy-sector volatility.
04BlackBerry beat Q4 revenue estimates and raised FY2027 guidance, prompting a premarket share jump as investors repriced its revenue and cash-flow outlook.

Global Market Summary

U.S. benchmarks closed higher after U.S. PCE showed persistent inflation and trimmed odds of near-term Fed easing: the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 0.62%, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained 0.83% and the Dow Jones (DJIA) added 0.58%. European markets lagged amid energy-driven volatility and regional data, with the DAX (DAX) down 1.14%, the CAC (FRA40) down 0.22% and the FTSE (UKX) down 0.05%, while 000001.SS in Asia was unchanged (0.0%).

Top Movers

Top gainers: EOSE (+29.63%), YSS (+28.84%), AXTI (+18.69%). Top losers: TPL (-15.68%), QLYS (-12.23%), SNOW (-11.83%). Notable sector moves: XLY +1.73%, XLE -1.24%, VGT +0.14%.

Macro highlights

The BEA's February Personal Income and Outlays release showed headline PCE +0.4% m/m and 2.8% y/y and core PCE +0.4% m/m and 3.0% y/y, underscoring that inflation remains above the Fed's 2% objective. Markets trimmed the odds of near-term Fed easing and favored safe-haven and rate-sensitive positioning after the release and Fed commentary noting higher oil and tariff pass-through could delay disinflation. Mexico's March CPI accelerated to 4.59% y/y and Banxico minutes revealed a divided board, adding local-rate volatility.

News that moved markets

Goldman Sachs lowered its Q2 oil forecasts to $90/bbl Brent and $87/bbl WTI after a two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire reduced the front-of-curve risk premium; the revisions coincided with roughly 3% intraday crude gains and increased energy-sector volatility. BlackBerry reported Q4 revenue of $156.0 million, beat estimates and issued FY2027 guidance above prior ranges, prompting a premarket share jump as investors repriced revenue and cash-flow outlooks. Bitmine (BMNR) uplisted to the NYSE and disclosed large crypto holdings and a $4.0 billion buyback authorization, affecting liquidity and index/ETF rebalancing considerations. Several completed transactions closed today, including Sealed Air's acquisition by CD&R, GTCR's completion of its acquisition of Zentiva and CB&I's purchase of Petrofac's Asset Solutions business. Announced deals included Gusto's acquisition of Mosey and Windward's acquisition of Prominent Edge.

Upcoming session watchlist

01US Inflation Rate YoY (MAR) — consensus 3.4% vs 2.8% prior, Apr 10, 12:30 PM | Measures headline annual inflation shaping views on price stability.
02US Core Inflation Rate YoY (MAR) — consensus 2.7% vs 3.0% prior, Apr 10, 12:30 PM | Indicates trend in underlying annual inflation and persistent price dynamics.
03US Inflation Rate MoM (MAR) — consensus 0.9% vs 0.4% prior, Apr 10, 12:30 PM | Signals headline monthly price changes and near-term inflation pressure.
04US Core Inflation Rate MoM (MAR) — consensus 0.3% vs 0.4% prior, Apr 10, 12:30 PM | Gauges underlying monthly inflation momentum and near-term price pressures.
05CA Unemployment Rate (MAR) — consensus 6.8% vs 6.7% prior, Apr 10, 12:30 PM | Assesses Canadian labor market slack and overall employment conditions.
06CN Inflation Rate YoY (MAR) — forecast 1.1% vs 1.3% prior, Apr 10, 01:30 AM | Provides a read on consumer price inflation momentum in China.

Key Takeaways

01U.S. benchmarks finished higher after the PCE release, reflecting trimmed odds of near-term Fed easing.
02European equities lagged as energy-driven volatility and regional data pressured indexes.
03Energy-sector volatility rose after Goldman lowered Q2 oil forecasts amid a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, coinciding with intraday crude gains.
04Single-stock volatility was pronounced: EOSE, YSS and AXTI surged while TPL, QLYS and SNOW fell; Bitmine uplisted and several M&A deals closed today.

References