Philippines nickel output seen flat in 2026

Philippine nickel producers expect national production to remain broadly flat this year, with little likelihood of exceeding last year’s volume of 67 million wet metric tons. Industry executives cite persistent weather volatility and subdued nickel prices as the main constraints on mining operations and investment decisions.

Philippine Nickel Industry Association president Dante Bravo said unpredictable rainfall and shifting weather patterns are disrupting mining activities, making a significant increase in output in 2026 unlikely. He noted that the sector is preparing for conditions in which production stays relatively unchanged compared with the previous year.

This outlook comes even as both volume and value of nickel direct shipping ore registered strong gains in the first half of 2026. Output in this segment rose 25.6% to 19.24 DMT, while its value surged 47.5% to P42.18 billion, reflecting robust activity earlier in the year.

Mining companies are struggling to maintain operations amid volatile weather, including the effects of the El Niño phenomenon. These conditions have complicated scheduling and limited the ability of producers to run sites at full capacity over sustained periods.

On the pricing side, nickel has come under pressure, with the average price falling to about $16,575 per metric ton in the third quarter from $18,119 per metric ton in the second quarter. Industry leaders describe current prices as insufficient to encourage a broad-based push to increase production.

Despite these headwinds, demand for critical minerals remains strong, particularly from major buyers in Asia. Together, China and Indonesia accounted for about 99.6% of the Philippines’ nickel ore exports, underscoring the country’s reliance on these markets.

Indonesia’s decision to stop exporting nickel ore and focus on domestic processing has altered regional market dynamics. This move has contributed to more stable nickel prices by limiting raw ore supply and redirecting trade flows toward processed and semi-finished products.

Philippine producers see opportunity in this environment, as China continues to require ore supplies and looks to secure inputs for stainless steel production. Competition among buyers is viewed as a factor that can help support more stable pricing for Philippine ore.

Industry representatives have suggested that if foreign buyers help develop post-processing capacity in the Philippines, the country could export more semi-finished nickel products. Such a shift could better align local output with evolving demand in downstream industries such as stainless steel manufacturing.

The Philippine Nickel Industry Association is pursuing deeper cooperation with regional partners to support value-added processing. The group has engaged with the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association to learn from its experience and explore investment opportunities.

A key initiative is the IndoPhil Nickel Corridor, a partnership designed to strengthen the global presence of both Philippine and Indonesian nickel. The corridor aims to promote closer industry coordination and develop processing and trade linkages between the two countries.

Industry leaders also emphasize the importance of diversifying within the broader critical minerals space and widening access to foreign investment. These efforts are presented as part of a strategy to enhance resilience amid weather-related risks and shifting global nickel prices.