Philippines set for diesel hike, gas rollback

Fuel prices in the Philippines are expected to diverge next week, with diesel facing another price increase while gasoline is set for a rollback. Local oil industry estimates point to a diesel pump price hike of P2 to P2.50 per liter and a gasoline price reduction of P1 to P1.50 per liter starting Tuesday. The Department of Energy is expected to announce the official pump price adjustments on Monday.

Based on current projections, a typical 50-liter tank of diesel could cost an additional P100 to P125 next week, adding to expenses for motorists and fuel-reliant businesses. For gasoline users, the expected rollback could mean savings of P50 to P75 for the same volume. If the estimates hold, regular diesel prices in Metro Manila could reach between P90.30 and P101.30 per liter, while premium diesel could rise to as high as P105.27 per liter. Gasoline prices could fall to as low as P73.40 per liter for RON 91, and RON 95 could range from P74.20 to P97.50 per liter.

The projected adjustments follow a recent week in which diesel prices increased by up to P2.60 per liter, while gasoline prices declined by up to P4.30 per liter. The latest forecasts are drawn from the first four days of trading in the Mean of Platts Singapore, the regional benchmark for refined petroleum products, combined with recent foreign exchange averages. These calculations do not yet factor in week-on-week freight movements, which may still affect the final pump price changes.

The expected diesel price increase is being driven by tighter global supply conditions linked to escalating hostilities affecting oil infrastructure and shipping routes. Attacks in the Middle East have heightened concerns over disruptions to Gulf crude loadings and ship-to-ship transfers that support regional supplies. At the same time, declining oil flows from the Gulf and intensified Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have added further upward pressure on refined diesel prices. Additional Russian diesel supply and emergency stock releases have provided some relief but have so far been outweighed by rising geopolitical risks.

Gasoline prices are moving in the opposite direction as product availability improves across Asia. Rising gasoline inventories in Singapore point to stronger regional supply, supporting successive rollbacks at the pump. Persistent tightness in diesel supplies has encouraged refiners to maintain crude processing rates, which can help sustain gasoline production even as demand weakens. This combination of constrained diesel supply and relatively ample gasoline stocks underpins the expected divergence in price movements for the two fuel types next week.

The latest bout of fuel price volatility has revived attention on the Philippines’ vulnerability to external supply shocks. Lawmakers have noted that, despite heavy reliance on imported petroleum products, the country does not yet have a comprehensive legal framework for a government-controlled strategic petroleum reserve. Such reserves are viewed as a tool that can be tapped during supply disruptions and periods of severe price swings to help shield consumers and businesses from abrupt increases in the cost of diesel, gasoline and other petroleum products.