Saudi pipeline outage risks 4% of oil supply

Saudi Arabia’s east–west crude pipeline, also referred to as the East‑West or Petroline system, is currently out of service, disrupting a key route that usually transports about 4 million barrels per day of oil to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Industry sources equate this volume to roughly 4% of global oil supply, highlighting the potential scale of the disruption if the outage persists.

This pipeline has been an important conduit for moving crude from eastern Saudi oil fields to export facilities on the kingdom’s western coast. With the line offline, the ability to sustain normal export flows now relies heavily on existing storage at Yanbu and at associated terminals in Egypt.

Industry estimates indicate that Yanbu’s current crude stocks are sufficient to support tanker loadings for only about five to seven days at typical rates. Once these inventories are drawn down, export capacity would be constrained unless pipeline pumping is restored or alternative arrangements are made.

Additional storage is available at Egypt’s Ain Sukhna and Sidi Kerir terminals, which are linked to flows across the Red Sea. Storage capacity is estimated at about 18 million barrels at Ain Sukhna and about 20 million barrels at Sidi Kerir. Market participants note that these volumes add only a few more days of export cover, underscoring the limited duration for which current shipments can be maintained without renewed pipeline supply.

Sources cited in market reporting provide differing views on how long it will take to repair the damaged pipeline. One estimate suggests that restoring full operations could take as long as five to six weeks, implying a potentially lengthy period of constrained flows along this route.

Other sources are more optimistic, indicating that repairs might proceed more quickly and that partial pumping could resume during the work. However, oil buyers and traders caution that if pumping is not restarted within days, Saudi Arabia risks losing up to about 4% of global oil supply from export markets as available stocks at Yanbu and in Egypt are depleted.

The prospect of up to 4 million barrels per day of Saudi crude being curtailed comes against the backdrop of already constrained global supply conditions. The East‑West pipeline typically provides a direct route to the Red Sea, helping ensure steady shipments to key consuming regions.

With storage buffers at Yanbu, Ain Sukhna and Sidi Kerir finite and repair timelines uncertain, the outage introduces significant short‑term risk to physical availability of crude. Market participants are closely watching the pace of repair work and the rate at which stocks are drawn down, as these factors will determine how long export volumes can remain near normal levels before the supply impact becomes more pronounced.