Silver tumbles below ₹2 lakh on MCX

Silver extends steep slide below ₹2 lakh on MCX

Silver prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange have broken decisively below the ₹2 lakh per kg mark as a sharp sell-off accelerates in late October 2026. MCX December silver futures fell 3.5% on Friday, dropping ₹7,000 in a single session to trade at ₹1,92,800 per kg, capping a two-day plunge of ₹17,000. The decline has wiped out silver’s gains for 2026 and pushed the metal to levels that undermine investor sentiment in the precious metals complex.

The correction in silver has been abrupt. From an August 2026 peak of ₹2,48,800 per kg, prices have fallen 22.5%; over the last 10 trading sessions they have dropped more than 14%, erasing ₹32,955 per kg. Silver is also down 6.38% in October and has declined by more than 50% from a record high of ₹4,20,048 per kg hit in January.

Macro pressures driving the sell-off

Analysts link the latest leg of the downturn to a combination of macroeconomic and geopolitical forces. Surging crude oil prices have revived inflation concerns, with Brent crude (UKOUSD) approaching $115 per barrel and nearing a four-year high of $115.25. Rising energy costs increase the risk of persistent inflation and strengthen the case for restrictive monetary policy, feeding expectations that US interest rates may remain higher for longer.

Higher bond yields and a stronger US dollar have raised the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals such as silver and gold (XAUUSD). Expectations of tighter US monetary policy, including probabilities of further rate hikes at upcoming Federal Reserve meetings, are weighing on bullion. Market participants also highlight concerns over industrial demand for silver, which compound the pressure caused by investment outflows.

Easing supply constraints and narrowing premiums could also be contributing to the correction.

Technical levels and outlook for volatility

From a technical standpoint, recent moves indicate key support and resistance zones for silver. On international markets, support is seen around $54.00-52.40 per troy ounce, with resistance at $56.10-57.20. On the MCX, support is identified between ₹1,96,000 and ₹1,93,300 per kg, while resistance lies in the ₹2,01,400-₹2,03,800 range, levels that traders are watching for near-term price signals.

Some technical analysts note that silver has broken below the $54.5 level, roughly equivalent to ₹2,00,000, opening the possibility of a further decline towards about $50, or approximately ₹1,80,000-₹1,85,000 per kg over the next 10-15 days. Others point to $50-$55 as a potential support and accumulation zone, suggesting that prices may attempt to establish a base there in the medium term, with scope for a 10-15% rebound if those levels hold.

Despite the sharp fall, experts broadly expect volatility to persist rather than an immediate stabilization. They highlight crude oil movements, the dollar, US interest-rate expectations, and domestic premiums as key drivers for silver in the coming sessions. While some analysts see the decline as offering opportunities for long-term investors, they generally favour staggered or systematic accumulation strategies instead of aggressive buying until clearer signs of price stability emerge.

Spillover to gold and broader bullion sentiment

The weakness in silver is occurring alongside pressure on gold (XAUUSD). On Friday, 24-carat gold (XAUUSD) in India fell 0.61% to ₹1,42,750 per 10 grams, while some gold futures contracts on the MCX have traded around ₹1,43,303 per 10 grams. The parallel declines underscore how rising crude oil prices, inflation worries, and expectations of sustained higher interest rates are affecting bullion more broadly.