South Africa leans on China as zero tariffs lift trade

South Africa’s exports to China rose nearly 25% year on year between May and August 2026, underscoring a sharp acceleration in trade with the world’s second-largest economy. Over the same period, South Africa’s imports from China increased by 23%, taking total bilateral trade to nearly $15 billion. The growth followed the introduction in May of a zero-tariff preference scheme for qualifying African exports, which allows eligible South African products to enter China without customs duties.

Within that May–August window, South African exports to China amounted to about $5.3 billion, with export growth outpacing the country’s overall export expansion of 17%. China remains South Africa’s largest trading partner, and the relationship has growing weight in Pretoria’s trade strategy as it seeks to broaden market access.

Agriculture has been one of the early beneficiaries of the zero-tariff arrangement. South Africa’s agricultural exports to China reached nearly $500 million between May and August, rising more than 35% year on year. Exporters of products such as citrus, apples, stone fruit and wine are among those targeting increased sales into the Chinese market under the new regime.

Between June 1 and August 31 the South African Revenue Service issued 25,975 certificates of origin for goods destined for China under the scheme, while customs declarations rose 199% year on year. Officials have developed a Top 100 value-added product portfolio for the Chinese market covering sectors including agroprocessing, beverages, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, machinery, medical equipment, fabricated metals, plastics and rubber, automotive products and other industrial capabilities.

China’s unilateral preference scheme provides duty-free market access for all South African products except for 47 tariff lines that remain subject to tariff-rate quotas, for the period from May 1 to April 30, 2028. South African products that comply with rules of origin can enter the Chinese market without customs duties, enhancing their price competitiveness. The zero-tariff policy is also seen as encouraging companies operating in South Africa to invest and export into China, as duty-free access strengthens their competitive position.

To provide greater certainty beyond 2028, South Africa and China are negotiating an Early Harvest Agreement through the Southern African Customs Union, following the signing of a framework agreement on economic partnership in Beijing in February. The proposed arrangement is intended to lock in more predictable market access for exporters while including safeguards to protect South African industry and jobs.

The expansion of trade with China is taking place as South Africa faces uncertainty over its future preferential access to the US market under the African Growth and Opportunity Act. AGOA has been extended until 2028, but South Africa’s continued eligibility is in doubt after the US administration raised concerns over several domestic and foreign policies and accused the government of persecuting white people, an allegation it rejects. An announcement on whether South Africa will be excluded is expected in early November, with officials expressing cautious optimism.

Against this backdrop, increasing exports to China forms part of South Africa’s effort to diversify export destinations and reduce exposure to potential trade disruptions in established markets. Bilateral trade with China reached R642 billion in 2025, up from R483 billion in 2021, with exports rising from R198 billion to R222 billion and imports increasing from R284 billion to R420 billion. While imports from China still substantially exceed exports, Chinese officials have voiced confidence that more high value-added South African products will enter the Chinese market over time.