SpaceX stock slumps as lockup expiry nears

SpaceX’s (SPCX) recently listed shares have come under renewed selling pressure, erasing much of their initial post-IPO gains. The stock briefly fell below its $135 offering price, touching an intraday low near $132.15 before recovering to close around $135.27. The move marked the first time the shares broke below the IPO level on an intraday basis, highlighting growing investor caution after a strong early trading debut.

The price action places the stock effectively back at its issue level, underscoring how quickly sentiment has shifted since the listing. Market participants are now focused less on the initial enthusiasm around the IPO and more on upcoming shifts in the company’s share supply that could influence trading dynamics.

A central factor in the recent volatility is the structure of SpaceX’s share base. Only about 4–5% of the company’s total shares currently trade freely, leaving the market with a relatively thin public float. This limited supply has magnified price swings and made the stock particularly sensitive to changes in positioning and expectations.

That supply constraint is set to change significantly in the coming weeks. The first major lockup tranche will release roughly 911.5 million shares on the second trading day after SpaceX’s first quarterly earnings report, which analysts expect in early August. At current prices, those shares are estimated to be worth about $123 billion, representing a substantial increase in the number of shares available for public trading.

In addition to the primary unlock, a further 455.8 million shares could become eligible for sale if the stock trades above $175.50 for five of ten sessions leading into the earnings date. Together, these scheduled releases would expand the tradeable share base far beyond its current level, a shift analysts identify as a source of structural downward pressure on the stock as potential new sellers emerge.

The combination of a tight existing float and a large, dated set of future unlocks has made SpaceX a focal point in discussions about post-IPO performance. The recent drop toward and through the IPO price is being viewed in the context of this impending supply increase, rather than as an isolated move. Investors are weighing how the market will absorb the additional shares and what that means for valuation and trading conditions.

Alongside these capital-market dynamics, SpaceX is also pursuing key operational milestones. Starship Flight 13 was scheduled for July 16, 2026, with a 90-minute launch window beginning at 6:45 p.m. EDT from Starbase, Texas. While such missions are important for the company’s technological and commercial roadmap, recent trading suggests that the lockup timetable and share supply considerations are currently exerting a stronger influence on the stock’s behavior.