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Strong Consumer Puts Discretionary In Play

COMMENTARY

September 25, 2026 at 01:05 UTC

1 min read

Multiple real‑time indicators point to a resilient U.S. consumer. Large consumer‑focused banks are reporting solid card‑spend data, retail sales are running ahead of expectations, and Costco (COST) is posting double‑digit revenue and comparable‑sales growth. Together, these signals show consumers are actively spending across categories rather than pulling back.

Historically, periods with broad confirmation of consumer strength have aligned with meaningful gains in the consumer discretionary sector. During the post‑GFC rebound from 2009-2011, the S&P 500 (SPX) Consumer Discretionary proxy (XLY) advanced roughly 90-110% from the March 2009 low. In the post‑COVID reopening phase from 2020-2021, XLY climbed roughly 120-140% from the March 2020 trough.

Similar dynamics appeared in 2016-2017, when XLY outpaced the broader S&P 500 (SPX) by roughly 5-10 percentage points during a stretch of firm consumer data. Within this backdrop, large discretionary and retail names such as Costco (COST), Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW), and Amazon (AMZN) have been key drivers of sector performance, reflecting their direct exposure to household spending and transaction volumes.

The historical pattern remains conditional rather than automatic. Strong spending has been most supportive for discretionary equities when it coincided with valuations that were not excessively stretched and when the macro backdrop avoided abrupt tightening shocks or imminent recession risk. Under those circumstances, robust consumer indicators and aligned sector pricing have previously set the stage for extended periods of relative strength in consumer‑linked stocks.

References