Uncertainty surrounds new U.S.–Venezuela oil deal

President Donald Trump announced that the United States has secured majority control over 65 billion barrels of Venezuela’s proven oil reserves. The deal is framed as giving the U.S. extensive access to Venezuelan crude and is presented as a measure that could lower gasoline prices for American consumers over time.

Despite the headline figure, no written agreement has been made public and key contractual terms have not been disclosed. As a result, important details about ownership structures, revenue sharing, operational control and legal safeguards are not yet known.

Venezuelan interim president Delcy Rodríguez has described the arrangement as a 25-year plan to develop 17 oilfields. A list shared with reporters places most of the targeted reserves in eight blocks in the Orinoco Belt and in fields located in Lake Maracaibo.

Rodríguez has said the plan envisions an initial boost in Venezuela’s oil production to 1.5 million barrels per day. The structure of commercial deals underpinning that plan has not been detailed, and it is unclear how responsibilities and costs would be divided among participants.

Chevron (CVX) is currently the only major U.S. oil company active in Venezuela, operating through joint ventures with the state oil firm PDVSA. It is not yet clear whether Chevron (CVX) or other firms will be involved in the newly announced projects or how any new ventures would interface with existing ones.

Energy experts state that Venezuela’s oil infrastructure has deteriorated after years of mismanagement. The country is currently producing around 1.2 million barrels per day, well below previous peak levels, and faces constraints in fields, export terminals and supporting infrastructure.

An assessment by Rystad Energy earlier in the year estimated that about $180 billion of investment through 2040 would be required to return Venezuela to peak production. This figure underscores the scale of capital and time likely needed for any major, sustained increase in output.

Specialists interviewed by financial media say that, even under favorable conditions, the impact of the new arrangement on global oil supply would materialize over years, not months. They note that repairing and upgrading facilities, drilling new wells and expanding export capacity are multi-year processes.

Because of these long lead times, analysts argue that the agreement is unlikely to bring meaningful relief to U.S. gasoline prices in the near term. Any substantial effect on fuel costs would depend on sustained investment, successful implementation of the development plan and stable operating conditions.

The legality and long-term viability of the arrangement remain uncertain in the absence of a published agreement. Questions persist over how the deal aligns with existing Venezuelan law, international contracts and potential future changes in political leadership.

Market participants and oil companies are awaiting further clarity on who will operate specific fields, how output and profits will be allocated, and what protections investors will have. Until these issues are resolved and concrete projects advance, the full implications of the U.S.–Venezuela oil deal for global energy markets will remain unclear.