Markets Eye AXP, PG, Hasbro EPS Beats

On April 10, 2026, prediction markets were launched to speculate on whether American Express (AXP), Procter & Gamble (PG) and Hasbro (HAS) will exceed consensus earnings expectations in their next quarterly reports. The contracts are hosted on Polymarket and reference analyst estimates sourced via Seeking Alpha.

Each market is structured as a binary outcome contract that resolves to "Yes" if the company reports earnings per share above a specified strike, and "No" otherwise. All three markets had zero reported trading volume at the time of publication and specify resolution procedures tied to upcoming April earnings dates.

The American Express (AXP) market is based on GAAP earnings per share. As of market creation, the card issuer is estimated to release quarterly earnings on April 23, 2026. The Street consensus GAAP EPS estimate used as the strike is $3.99.

This contract resolves to "Yes" if American Express (AXP) reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.99 for the relevant quarter in its next earnings release. The primary resolution source is the GAAP EPS figure in the company’s official earnings documents, with IFRS EPS treated as GAAP EPS where applicable and diluted GAAP EPS preferred when available.

If the company does not publish GAAP EPS, the market will instead use the GAAP EPS figure reported by Seeking Alpha. If no such figure appears within 96 hours of the market close on the earnings day, or if earnings are not released within 45 calendar days of the estimated date, the market will resolve to "No." Subsequent restatements are generally ignored except for clear immediate errors.

Separate markets were opened the same day for Procter & Gamble (PG) and Hasbro (HAS), both keyed to non-GAAP EPS. For Procter & Gamble (PG), earnings are estimated for April 24, 2026, with the Street consensus non-GAAP EPS at $1.56. For Hasbro, earnings are estimated for April 23, 2026, with a non-GAAP EPS consensus of $0.99.

Each of these markets resolves to "Yes" if the company reports non-GAAP EPS greater than its respective strike in the next quarterly release. The primary resolution source is the headline non-GAAP EPS in official company documents, typically the diluted figure. If multiple non-GAAP EPS numbers are issued, the primary headline metric is used.

If a company does not release non-GAAP EPS, the contracts fall back to the non-GAAP EPS reported by Seeking Alpha. If no such figure is available within 96 hours of market close on the announcement day, the rules require use of GAAP EPS from official filings or, failing that, from Seeking Alpha. If no GAAP EPS is available at that point, the market resolves to "No." Failure to report earnings within 45 days of the estimated date also forces a "No" outcome.

All three markets use strike prices derived from Seeking Alpha’s consensus of sell-side analyst estimates. Figures are expressed in U.S. dollars and rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding rules. For primarily international issuers, the contracts reference U.S.-traded shares or depositary receipts, though the three covered companies are U.S.-listed.

Across the markets, GAAP EPS is defined as diluted GAAP EPS when available, with basic EPS used only if diluted is not published. IFRS EPS is treated as equivalent to GAAP EPS for resolution. Restatements or later revisions to EPS generally do not affect settlement, except in cases of obvious and immediate mistakes such as input errors highlighted by the rules.