Oil Majors Renew Push Into Alaska

Major international oil companies are stepping up their presence in Alaska, with new spending and lease activity pointing to a renewed focus on the state’s crude potential. The moves come as producers seek new reserves and project pipelines in a region seen as offering substantial undeveloped resources.

A central element of this renewed interest is the National Petroleum Reserve of Alaska, where companies have competed for exploration rights. Industry forecasters expect these efforts, along with new project start ups, to reverse a long running decline in the state’s oil output over the coming years.

In March 2026, ExxonMobil (XOM), Shell and Repsol (REPe) jointly bid a record $163 million to secure leases in the National Petroleum Reserve of Alaska. The area is estimated to hold 8.8 million barrels of recoverable oil, underscoring why the acreage has drawn heightened interest from large producers.

The size of the bid highlights the companies’ willingness to commit significant capital to future exploration and appraisal work in the reserve. The leases add to a growing portfolio of projects that could feed new production into Alaska’s existing infrastructure later in the decade and beyond.

Nearer term volumes are expected from Santos and Repsol’s Pikka development. The $4.5 billion project is expected to begin operating in May 2026 and to produce up to 80,000 barrels of oil per day at full output, according to project estimates.

Pikka is one of the first large new oil fields scheduled to come online in the current investment cycle. Its start up will mark a key test of how quickly new Alaskan developments can be brought into production amid changing market conditions and operating environments.

Further out, ConocoPhillips’ (COP) Willow project represents another large planned addition to Alaskan supply. The development carries an estimated cost of $9 billion and is expected to start production in 2029.

Willow is designed to produce 180,000 barrels of oil per day at full capacity. Together with Pikka and prospective output from newly leased areas, the project forms part of a pipeline of developments that could materially increase the state’s total production.

Industry capital expenditure in Alaska reached a decade high of $5 billion in 2025, up from $4.1 billion in 2024, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie. The increase reflects higher spending on both new field developments and supporting infrastructure.

Alaska’s oil production fell to a near 50 year low of 475,000 barrels per day in 2024. Wood Mackenzie forecasts that output could rise to almost 750,000 barrels per day by 2030, supported by projects such as Pikka and Willow and by continued exploration in leased acreage.

Taken together, record lease bids, large scale project sanctions and increased capital expenditure signal that Alaska is once again a key focus area for global oil producers seeking to expand their long term production portfolios.