Boeing’s 20-year jet demand outlook for 2026–2045

Boeing (BA) released its 2026 Commercial Market Outlook in Farnborough, United Kingdom, ahead of the Farnborough International Airshow on July 18, 2026. The company stated that near-term disruptions are not expected to meaningfully affect long-term aviation industry growth. The outlook covers the 20-year period from 2026 to 2045 and focuses on both passenger and cargo markets.

Boeing (BA) highlighted that demand for air travel is set to double over the next two decades. It emphasized that airlines are adapting quickly to manage near-term constraints, while underlying demand for air travel remains resilient.

Boeing projects that the global commercial airplane fleet will grow nearly 80% by 2045, reaching more than 50,000 airplanes. To support this expansion and replace older aircraft, the company forecasts nearly 44,000 new airplane deliveries between 2026 and 2045.

Roughly half of these projected deliveries are expected to replace previous-generation airplanes with more fuel-efficient models. The remaining deliveries are anticipated to support network and capacity growth across global markets.

Boeing identified emerging market travel, point-to-point network expansion and air cargo as key contributors to fleet growth. These factors are seen as central to meeting the expected increase in passenger and cargo demand.

Passenger traffic is expected to grow about 4% annually from 2026 to 2045. Based on this rate, Boeing anticipates that overall air traffic will double over the 20-year period.

The company observed that passengers are adjusting destinations and routings rather than forgoing travel. It noted that long-haul travel in some regions, including the Middle East, has seen the most short-term impact from recent disruptions, but did not change its long-term demand projections on that basis.

In air cargo, Boeing forecast traffic growth of about 3.7% annually through 2045. This outlook reflects expectations for continued expansion in global trade and freight demand over the long term.

Boeing reported that international freighter capacity has increased 5% year-to-date in 2026. The company expects air cargo expansion to be one of the contributors to overall fleet growth during the forecast period.

Overall, the Commercial Market Outlook portrays a steady long-term growth path for both passenger and cargo segments, despite current regional and operational challenges.