CPI Freeze Heightens Market Uncertainty

U.S. equities surge after dovish Fed remarks, 10-year yields dip, December rate cut odds increase

Key Points

01Dovish remarks from New York Fed President Williams and Governor Waller have lifted odds of a December rate cut, helping drive U.S. equity gains and pressuring longer-term Treasury yields.
02The BLS cancellation of the October CPI and the rescheduling of November CPI has removed a near-term inflation datapoint and increased uncertainty in rates-sensitive markets.
03Germany's Ifo business climate has eased marginally, weighing on euro-area growth expectations and contributing to mixed performance across European indexes.
04The Bank of Israel has cut its policy rate to 4.25%, citing moderating inflation and a Q3 GDP rebound, putting downward pressure on short-term shekel rates and altering sovereign spreads.
05Technology has led sector gains, while defensive and energy groups have lagged; several single stocks have recorded double-digit moves in both directions.

Global Market Summary

U.S. equities led global gains after dovish Fed signals and rising odds of a December rate cut from comments by New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Christopher Waller: the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 1.54% and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) advanced 2.62%. European indexes were mixed as Germany's Ifo business climate eased to 88.1 and ECB commentary on AI kept the growth/inflation mix in focus, with DAX up 0.64% while FRA40 fell 0.29% and UKX was flat (-0.05%); in Asia HSI climbed 1.97% and 000001.SS was essentially flat (+0.05%).

Top Movers

Technology led sector gains with VGT up 2.44%, while XLY rose 1.54% and XLC gained 1.06%. Defensive and energy groups lagged, with XLP down 1.01% and XLE down 0.41%. Single-stock movers included INSP +29.13%, ONDS +25.98% and OSCR +23.85% at the top, while ACLX fell 17.56% and GRND dropped 9.65%.

Macro highlights

Germany's Ifo business climate eased to 88.1 from 88.4, a marginal softening that weighed on euro-area growth expectations. The Federal Reserve scheduled an annual G.17 revision of industrial production and capacity utilization for noon EST, re-benchmarking to the 2022 Economic Census and prompting potential model and sector exposure updates. The Bank of Israel cut its policy rate to 4.25%, citing moderating inflation and a Q3 GDP rebound and saying the decision is likely to put downward pressure on short-term shekel rates and affect sovereign spreads.

News that moved markets

Dovish remarks from New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Christopher Waller lifted odds of a 25bp cut in December to roughly 70%, helping drive U.S. equity gains and pushing 10-year Treasury yields toward about 4.05%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' cancellation of the October CPI and the rescheduling of November CPI to December 18 removed a near-term inflation datapoint ahead of the FOMC, increasing uncertainty in rates-sensitive markets. The Bank of Israel's policy-rate cut also altered local fixed-income and FX positioning, per the central bank statement. MineOS completed the strategic sale of its consumer privacy business and Diversified Energy completed the acquisition of Canvas Energy; announced transactions included Newmark's acquisition of Catella Valuation Advisory in Paris and Fulton Financial's planned all-stock merger with Blue Foundry Bancorp.

Upcoming session watchlist

01US PPI MoM (SEP) — consensus 0.3% vs -0.1% prior, Nov 25, 01:30 PM | Tracks upstream price pressures feeding into consumer inflation.
02US Retail Sales MoM (SEP) — consensus 0.4% vs 0.6% prior, Nov 25, 01:30 PM | Indicates consumer demand momentum and near-term growth impulse.

Key Takeaways

01U.S. equities have led global gains, with the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq posting notable advances after dovish Fed signals and higher cut odds.
0210-year Treasury yields have moved toward about 4.05% as markets priced increased odds of a December rate cut.
03European indexes have been mixed after Germany's Ifo eased and ECB commentary kept the growth/inflation mix in focus.
04Technology-led gains have supported the U.S. rally while defensive and energy groups have lagged; single-stock volatility has been pronounced.

References