Drone strikes deepen Russia’s fuel squeeze

Ukrainian forces have targeted Russian energy infrastructure with a sustained campaign of long-range drone strikes, including what President Volodymyr Zelensky described as a second hit on the Ufa oil refinery within a week. The Ufa facility is one of Russia’s largest producers of lubricants and lies more than 1,000 kilometers from the front line, underscoring the reach of Ukraine’s drone capabilities. Russian officials did not confirm damage at Ufa, but the attack fits into a broader pattern of deep strikes on refineries and related assets.

During the same overnight period cited by Ukrainian and Russian statements, the Russian Defense Ministry reported intercepting 179 Ukrainian drones over 16 Russian regions, the annexed Crimean Peninsula, and the waters of the Azov and Black Sea. Western and Ukrainian reporting describes the overall campaign as long-range, with Kyiv claiming hits on oil refineries and a satellite communications center north of Moscow, as well as other infrastructure used for military coordination and energy production.

An Associated Press count indicates that, since late March, there have been more than 50 reported attacks on oil refineries, depots, terminals and other energy infrastructure in Russia and occupied Crimea. Video reporting shows refineries set ablaze in some cases, illustrating the intensity of strikes that have become almost a daily feature of the conflict.

The wave of attacks and associated outages has coincided with a sharp contraction in Russia’s refining sector. In June, the volume of crude oil processed into fuel fell about 25% year-on-year to 3.95 million barrels per day, the lowest level in more than two decades. Gasoline production dropped about 17% over the same period to roughly 850,000 barrels per day.

Industry analysts estimate that about one-third of Russia’s refining capacity is currently offline because of repeated strikes and related operational disruptions. Some of the most significant damage has occurred at large facilities whose output is central to regional supply, amplifying the effect of each outage on the broader fuel market inside the country.

The Moscow oil refinery, which previously supplied about 40% of the capital’s fuel, is among the plants facing extended downtime. Industry estimates cited in reporting suggest repairs at this facility will take at least three months, raising the prospect that reduced output from Moscow and other damaged refineries will persist well into the summer.

By late June, many Russian regions had introduced some form of fuel rationing amid tightening supplies. Long queues have formed at gas stations across the country, and video footage shows lines of vehicles and shuttered fuel points in multiple areas. Local authorities in regions such as Irkutsk and in Crimea have adopted ad hoc measures to manage the strain, including steps to accommodate motorists waiting for extended periods.

President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged that "problems persist for both motorists and businesses" and conceded that there are still queues at petrol stations. He has described the shortages as temporary and not critical, even as domestic supply data and visible rationing indicate a sustained period of tightness in the fuel market.

With repair timelines at major refineries stretching over months and a significant share of capacity offline, industry estimates suggest that supply pressures could last through the summer if current conditions continue. The combination of ongoing drone attacks, reduced refining throughput and logistical bottlenecks is shaping a nationwide fuel squeeze that has become a central economic consequence of the conflict for Russia.