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ISM and ADP drove US equity rally

MARKET BRIEF

March 4, 2026 at 21:00 UTC

4 min read
US and European equities rally visualization with ISM Services and ADP data impact

Key Points

  • 01ISM Services PMI accelerated to 56.1, which put upward pressure on bond yields and tempered near-term Fed-cut expectations.
  • 02ADP reported private payrolls +63,000 and job-stayer pay +4.5%, reinforcing resilient labor demand and supporting risk-on flows.
  • 03U.S. equities rallied and European markets followed as ISM/ADP signals fueled gains; Asian bourses lagged after mixed regional data.
  • 04Technology and consumer cyclicals led sector gains while defensive staples and energy lagged; several individual names posted double-digit moves.

Global Market Summary

U.S. equities rallied after stronger services and payroll signals: the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 0.78%, the Nasdaq (^IXIC) gained 1.29% and the Dow (DJIA) added 0.49% as ISM Services PMI and ADP prints reinforced resilient demand. European markets followed, with the DAX (DAX) up 1.74%, the CAC (FRA40) up 0.79% and the FTSE (UKX) up 0.80% on similar risk-on flows. Asian bourses lagged after mixed regional data: the Nikkei (NKY) fell 3.61%, the Hang Seng (HSI) dropped 2.01% and the Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) slipped 0.98% amid divergent PMI and confidence updates.

Top Movers

Technology and consumer cyclicals led sector gains: VGT (+1.33%) and XLY (+1.74%) outperformed, while defensive XLP (-0.64%) and energy XLE (-0.60%) lagged. Top individual movers included STVN (+18.81%), GLXY (+17.70%) and MRNA (+16.05%). Notable decliners were IBRX (-10.10%), EMAT (-7.65%) and FROG (-7.22%).

Macro highlights

The ISM Services PMI accelerated to 56.1 in February and ADP reported private payrolls +63,000 with job-stayer pay +4.5%, a combination that put upward pressure on bond yields and tempered near-term Fed-cut expectations. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book described modest-to-moderate activity with moderate input-driven price pressures, reinforcing a cautious policy backdrop for rates.

News that moved markets

Bath & Body Works (BBWI) reported a Q4 beat but issued conservative fiscal-2026 guidance and paused buybacks, a mix that may weigh on near-term top-line momentum and capital allocation. indie Semiconductor (INDI) priced $150m of 4.00% convertible notes due 2031 with an implied conversion price near $3.87, a structure cited as likely to generate hedging flows and elevate share volatility ahead of settlement. Brown-Forman (BFA/BFB) reaffirmed its full-year outlook, completed a $400m repurchase program and declared a regular dividend, supporting demand in the spirits sector.

Upcoming session watchlist

  • 01AU Balance of Trade (Jan) — consensus A$3.9B vs A$3.373B prior | Gauges export-import balance and net trade's contribution to growth.

Key Takeaways

  • 01S&P 500 (SPX) rose 0.78%, Nasdaq gained 1.29%, and the Dow added 0.49% after ISM and ADP prints.
  • 02DAX rose 1.74%, CAC 0.79% and FTSE 0.80% as European markets followed US risk-on flows.
  • 03Nikkei fell 3.61%, Hang Seng dropped 2.01% and Shanghai Composite slipped 0.98% as Asian bourses lagged.
  • 04Technology and consumer cyclicals outperformed while defensive staples and energy underperformed; several stocks posted double-digit moves.

References

  1. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/03/04/3249189/0/en/Bath-Body-Works-Drives-progress-on-the-Consumer-First-Formula-across-innovation-brand-elevation-and-marketplace-expansion-and-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Results-and-.html
  2. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260303790602/en/
  3. https://www.brown-forman.com/article/brown-forman-reports-year-date-fiscal-2026-results-reaffirms-full-year-outlook-march-4-2026
  4. https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-first-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial
  5. https://mediacenter.adp.com/2026-03-04-ADP-National-Employment-Report-Private-Sector-Employment-Increased-by-63,000-Jobs-in-February-Annual-Pay-was-Up-4-5
  6. https://investors.brown-forman.com/investors/news-releases/press-release/2026/Brown-Forman-Reports-Year-to-Date-Fiscal-2026-Results-Reaffirms-Full-Year-Outlook/default.aspx
  7. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-63-000-jobs-in-february-annual-pay-was-up-4-5-302703846.html
  8. https://www.bis.org/speeches/sp260304.htm
  9. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/
  10. https://data.ecb.europa.eu/data/datasets/HICP
  11. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-56-1-february-2026-ism-services-pmi-report-302702978.html
  12. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20260304.pdf