Market Brief — August 12, 2026

US equities ended mixed as the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 0.26% and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained 0.54%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dipped 0.04%. In Europe, the CAC 40 (FRA40) fell 0.46%, the DAX (DAX) lost 0.23%, and the FTSE 100 (UKX) eased 0.10% as traders interpreted softer but still above-target US inflation as leaving scope for further Fed tightening. The Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) was unchanged, reflecting limited spillover from US macro data into Asian trading.

July US CPI printed at 0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y, with core CPI up 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y, keeping inflation above target but extending the disinflation trend after nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 and prior months were revised down by 103,000 jobs. After the release, Fed funds futures assigned roughly a 50% chance of a 25 bp hike in September, with CME FedWatch showing a 61.9% probability that the federal funds rate remains at 3.5%-3.75% and a 38.1% chance of a hike, following July's FOMC decision to hold rates steady despite three dissenters. The US Dollar Index (DXY) held in the high-99 to 100 range as Brent (BRENT $88-89) and WTI (WTI $82-83) traded firm on Strait of Hormuz tensions, gold (GOLD) rose about 1%, and Treasury data showing a record July deficit of $432.3 billion and a fiscal-year 2026 shortfall of $1.799 trillion prompted the CBO to lift its deficit forecast to roughly $2.1 trillion.

CoreWeave's Q2 beat and higher capex guidance, with revenue doubling y/y and an operating margin near 5%, triggered an AI infrastructure rally as Nvidia and Micron gained about 3% and 7%, the PHLX Semiconductor Index rose 3.4%, and Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) surged 34.13% after reporting Q2 results that beat expectations. Hon Hai posted Q2 net profit of NT$59.97 billion, up 35% y/y, on revenue of NT$2.53 trillion, up 41% y/y and 19% q/q, with AI-focused cloud and networking products comprising 51% of sales and management guiding to more than 30% capex growth and high double-digit growth in AI server rack shipments. Elsewhere, Jumia raised $50 million in new equity funding anchored by a $25 million IFC investment while reiterating targets for adjusted EBITDA breakeven and positive cash flow in Q4 2026, and Eli Lilly filed six US lawsuits against alleged sellers of black-market retatrutide, saying it has referred more than 200 entities to authorities and urged platforms and regulators to help shut down the illegal market. Viome completed its acquisition of Circulate Health, aiming to connect early diagnostics, precision nutrition, and treatment within a single offering, while Bernhard Capital Partners closed its purchase of New Mexico Gas Company. Announced deals included Bank of America entering a joint venture with Jio Financial Services to acquire up to 49.9% of Jio Credit Limited and a series of smaller transactions by Amynta Group, Merit Financial Advisors, EnableComp, Context Labs, Turnbridge Equities, FACS, and Privacy Bee.