Market Brief — August 26, 2026

US equities were marginally lower, with SPX down 0.02%, DJIA off 0.21%, and IXIC slipping 0.08% on the day. European indices were mixed as FRA40 gained 0.27% and DAX rose 0.08% while UKX edged down 0.07%. In Asia, 000001.SS was flat on the day.

US inflation data kept underlying price pressures evident, with headline PCE at 3.7% year on year in July, core PCE at 3.3% and both up 0.2% month on month, while CPI rose 0.1% month on month and 3.4% year on year and core CPI increased 0.2% and 2.5% respectively. Fed data left markets pricing elevated odds of a September rate hike, with one report citing roughly 40% probabilities, as WTI fell about 2.5% to $80.30 and Brent dropped 2.62% to $86.26 after Hormuz corridor talks, the 10-year Treasury yield declined over 7 basis points to around 4.625%, the DXY eased to 98.915, gold held above the $4,600–$4,700 area, and ECB commentary signaled euro area rates may still need to rise from a 2.25% deposit facility rate. Ahead of the US Q2 GDP 2nd estimate and July personal income, spending, and durable goods reports, calendar forecasts pointed to 1.5% quarter on quarter GDP growth, 0.2% personal income, 0.3% personal spending, and 0.2% durable orders, while Argentina forecasts projected August CPI between 1.4% and 1.8% and the Government Confidence Index rose 6.4% to 41.2 points.

Energy markets stayed in focus as Iran-Oman talks on a temporary navigational corridor and mine-clearing in the Strait of Hormuz reduced the war premium, with Brent sliding to about $86.28 per barrel and WTI to $80.29 and extending the recent crude pullback. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs extended a multi-day inflow streak, recording $337.6 million of net inflows on Monday and $2.26 billion over six days, with IBIT taking in about $284.42 million and FBTC also recording inflows as BTC traded near $80,000, underscoring sustained demand for crypto exposure. Policy and corporate headlines were mixed as Canada announced C$27.6 billion of retaliatory tariffs on more than 700 U.S. goods effective September 8, the U.S. Treasury doubled the cap on long-dated buybacks to $4 billion and signaled potential expansion that narrowed 30-year swap spreads, and existing Shein investors agreed to a six-month lock-up on Hong Kong IPO shares for a listing targeting around a $27 billion valuation. Somnigroup completed its combination with Leggett & Platt, while Hull Street Energy closed its acquisition of peaking plants in PJM to expand the Milepost Power portfolio and IBM completed the purchase of HRL Laboratories to accelerate its quantum initiatives. Announced deals included Spotnana agreeing to acquire TROOP to enhance meetings and events capabilities, Basware signing to acquire Trustpair, Hexagon planning to acquire Guidance Marine, Numa buying SocketTime to deepen its AI operating system for dealership fixed operations, MERGE purchasing Brado's digital and insight practices, NTT DATA agreeing to acquire Netgain to build a larger ServiceNow platform in Sweden, and Nooks acquiring FullyRamped.