Market Brief — July 14, 2026

Key Points

01June CPI cooled to 3.5% y/y and core eased, which trimmed July Fed-hike odds and pushed short-term Treasury yields lower and the dollar weaker.
02FOMC minutes removed prior guidance that cuts were the default and highlighted upside inflation risks from energy, tariffs, and strong AI investment.
03Renewed US-Iran strikes and tanker attack reports sent Brent sharply higher and cut Strait of Hormuz ship crossings by about 52%.
04IBM's (IBM) preliminary Q2 results cited missed large-deal closures and margin pressure, triggering a roughly 25% share drop; megabanks reported strong combined Q2 profits.

Global Market Summary

US equities gained, with the S&P 500 (SPX) up 0.38%, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) up 0.90%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) up 0.02% after June CPI showed headline inflation slowing to 3.5% year over year and swap markets cut July Fed-hike odds to near 20% from above 40%. European benchmarks also advanced as oil stayed elevated and traders priced further Bank of England and ECB tightening, with the FTSE 100 (UKX) up 0.30%, the DAX (DAX) up 0.13%, and the CAC 40 (FRA40) up 0.03%. In Asia, the Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) ended flat with a 0.0% move on the day.

Top Movers

Technology led sectors, with VGT up 1.32%, while energy XLE gained 0.37% and financials XLF rose 0.20%; defensives lagged as healthcare XLV fell 1.93% and consumer staples XLP lost 1.38%. Among single names, SKHY jumped about 27.3%, CHRN rose 16.68%, AXTI gained 14.09%, ATAI advanced 14.08%, and SEZL climbed 13.82%, while IBM dropped roughly 23–25%, PSNY fell 14.99%, DNLI slid 14.46%, ERIC declined 13.48%, and BIIB lost 8.17%.

Macro highlights

June US CPI cooled, with headline inflation at 3.5% year over year and down 0.4% month over month while core CPI was flat and 2.6% year over year, driving a 14 bp drop in the two-year Treasury yield to about 4.14% and cutting July Fed-hike odds to near 20% as September odds stayed close to 60%. FOMC minutes from the June meeting confirmed the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, removed prior guidance that cuts were the default path, and highlighted upside inflation risks from energy, tariffs, and strong AI-driven investment even as participants split on the need for further tightening. The softer CPI print weakened the US Dollar Index DXY toward 100.74, pulled the US10Y yield down near 4.56%, and coincided with higher commodity prices as Brent traded around $86.30, WTI near $79 and gold futures near 4,024, while Australia’s NAB Business Confidence improved to -5 from -14 and China’s approval of private Australian canola imports supported canola prices.

News that moved markets

Energy markets responded to renewed US–Iran strikes and reported attacks on UAE tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude jumping about 9.6% to $83.30 per barrel, WTI rising to roughly $79.34, and ship crossings through the strait dropping about 52% versus the prior week. IBM issued preliminary Q2 2026 results showing $17.2 billion of revenue and operating EPS of $2.93, with management citing missed large-deal closures and margin pressure, triggering a share drop of about 25%. Five US megabanks reported combined Q2 profits above $49 billion, up 39% year over year, including Bank of America’s (BAC) roughly $9.1 billion of net income with EPS of $1.21 beating consensus and Goldman Sachs’ $20.34 billion of net revenues with investment-banking fees up 55%, while banks shared about $500 million in fees tied to taking SpaceX public and separate headlines from Dangote Refinery, Nigeria’s $11.50-per-barrel tax rebate for Shell’s Bonga Southwest Aparo project, and a €1 billion Deutsche Bank–MIGA trade-finance platform underscored shifting funding and currency conditions in energy and frontier markets. Acorn Capital Management completed its exit of Berry Aviation, and Ligand closed its acquisition of XOMA Royalty, creating a portfolio of more than 200 biopharmaceutical royalty assets. On the announced side, MAVRX Sports Housing agreed to acquire Top Performance Housing, PEF Advisors moved to buy Carroll Tower Apartments in Illinois, and Cribl, Cents, PartnerOne, NFP, and SoftServe each unveiled acquisitions to expand offerings across security operations, laundry software, analytics, benefits brokerage, and India-based IT services.

Upcoming Session: Key Events

01CN GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q2) — forecast 4.7% vs 5% prior, Jul 15, 02:00 AM | Tracks China's Q2 economic growth momentum and informs demand and policy expectations.
02CN Retail Sales YoY (JUN) — forecast 3.7% vs -0.6% prior, Jul 15, 02:00 AM | Gauges household consumption strength and near-term domestic demand conditions.
03CN Industrial Production YoY (JUN) — forecast 5% vs 4.5% prior, Jul 15, 02:00 AM | Measures manufacturing output and industrial activity, informing growth and commodity demand.
04US PPI MoM (JUN) — forecast 0.8% vs 1.1% prior, Jul 15, 12:30 PM | Signals pipeline inflation pressures that can pass through to consumer prices.
05CA BoC Monetary Policy Report — Jul 15, 01:45 PM | Updates projections and risks shaping Bank of Canada policy and growth outlook.
06US Fed Chair Warsh Testimony — Jul 15, 02:00 PM | Offers guidance on monetary policy outlook and assessment of inflation and growth.

Upcoming Session: Tickers to Watch

01Brent crude (UKOIL) — US-Iran strikes and reported attacks on UAE tankers in the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent about 9.6% higher to $83.30 and cut ship crossings ~52%. Expect elevated volatility at the next open as Asian and European energy desks adjust to shipping disruption.
02IBM (IBM) — issued preliminary Q2 results ($17.2B revenue, operating EPS $2.93) citing missed large-deal closures and margin pressure, triggering about a 25% share drop. Monitor for a sizable gap and intraday rotation at the open as overnight and global order flow digests the shock.
03U.S. 2-Year Treasury (US2Y) — June CPI cooling drove the two-year yield down ~14bp to about 4.14% and cut July Fed-hike odds to near 20%. Look for additional front-end moves and higher Treasury futures volatility at the open as markets reassess Fed timing across time zones.
04Bank of America (BAC) — among five megabanks reporting combined Q2 profits above $49bn, Bank of America (BAC) posted roughly $9.1bn net income with EPS $1.21 beating consensus, and banks disclosed about $500m in fees tied to taking SpaceX public. Watch for sector rotation and order flow at the NYSE open as overseas investors parse results.

Key Takeaways

01US equities gained after the CPI print, with the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq leading gains while the Dow remained roughly flat.
02Short-term Treasury yields fell and the US dollar weakened; the 10-year Treasury yield also eased following the softer CPI print.
03Energy prices surged on Middle East-related attacks, lifting Brent and WTI and prompting declines in regional shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
04Technology led sector gains while healthcare and staples lagged; SKHY surged and IBM suffered a large preliminary Q2 results-driven drop.

References