Market Brief — September 4, 2026

Key Points

01August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 and average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y, which lifted market-implied September Fed-hike odds.
02Jobs data lifted the two-year Treasury yield about eight basis points above 4.416%, which pushed U.S. stock index futures mostly lower.
03Waller's conditional hold view had reduced CME FedWatch odds to about 50%, with two-year yields slipping to ~4.34% and gold rising about 1.9%.
04Lululemon (LULU) cut full-year guidance citing weak China demand and softer North America traffic, and its stock fell 17.4% after guiding to mid-teens North America sales declines.

Global Market Summary

US equities fell, with the Dow (DJIA) down 0.5%, the S&P 500 (SPX) down 0.4%, and the Nasdaq (^IXIC) down 0.3% as a stronger-than-expected August payrolls report lifted Fed-hike odds and pushed yields higher. In Europe, DAX gained 0.2%, FRA40 slipped 0.1%, and UKX was essentially flat at 0.0%, leaving the region mixed into the close. In Asia, 000001.SS finished unchanged at 0.0%.

Top Movers

Sector performance was split, with industrials (XLI) up 0.4%, technology (VGT) up 0.3%, and utilities (XLU) up 0.1%, while consumer discretionary (XLY) fell 1.3%, communication services (XLC) lost 1.2%, and healthcare (XLV) declined 1.0%. Among single-name movers, BLTE climbed 13.2%, AEHR gained 13.1%, SNDK advanced 11.9%, COHU added 10.3%, and CBRS rose 10.3%, whereas GWRE sank 19.9%, LULU dropped 17.4%, FICO fell 16.7%, PATH lost 16.6%, and ASAN declined 12.7%.

Macro highlights

Fed Governor Waller said he would support holding the policy rate steady at the September meeting if August CPI confirms cooling inflation, and CME FedWatch odds of a September hike fell to about 50% as the two-year Treasury yield slipped to roughly 4.34% and gold (XAUUSD) rose about 1.9% to near 4,471. The August jobs report then showed nonfarm payrolls up 162,000, unemployment at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, which pushed market-implied odds of a September hike up to around 60%, lifted the two-year yield about eight basis points above 4.416%, and sent U.S. stock index futures mostly lower. President Trump demanded rate cuts and threatened to halt trade with deficit countries after the data, while Cleveland Fed’s Hammack argued policy is not restrictive enough and projected inflation near 2.5% in 2027.

News that moved markets

Lululemon (LULU) cut full-year guidance for the third time, citing weaker China demand, softer North American traffic, and markdown pressure, and the stock fell 17.4% as management guided to mid-teens percentage sales declines in North America for the third quarter. AMC rose about 6% to roughly 2.69 after CEO Adam Aron condemned Robinhood’s tokenized AMC products and vowed legal and regulatory action, while Robinhood shares fell about 3% to around 121.30. Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and reduced Strait of Hormuz traffic pushed crude oil up nearly 9% for the week, with WTI futures near 88.65, alongside 11.12 billion dollars of outflows from U.S. equity funds and 48.76 billion into money-market funds, as U.S. sanctions on Golden Global Investment Bank, Milei’s planned Falklands oil penalties, Volkswagen’s plan for about 50,000 additional job cuts, and Norway’s wealth fund proposal to cut its U.S. Treasury benchmark weight added to geopolitical and policy risk. SoundHound AI completed its acquisition of LivePerson, Danone closed its purchase of Huel, and Hawthorn Bancshares finalized its merger with FSC Bancshares, marking completions across conversational AI, functional nutrition, and regional banking. In new deals, EQT agreed to buy specialty (re)insurance broker McGill and Partners from Warburg Pincus for about 2.0 billion dollars and Primero Games moved to acquire Win Systems’ gaming division to expand its international reach. King Resources Global’s subsidiary Heavenly Grace Limited also agreed to acquire 23 collectible items valued at 68.9 million dollars.

Upcoming Session: Key Events

01AU Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (SEP) — forecast -3.6% vs 6% prior, Sep 08, 12:30 AM | Tracks shifts in household sentiment that drive spending and services demand.
02AU NAB Business Confidence (AUG) — forecast -8 vs -6 prior, Sep 08, 01:30 AM | Gauges firms' outlook for activity, hiring, and investment momentum.
03CN Imports YoY (AUG) — vs 27.5% prior, Sep 08, 03:00 AM | Measures domestic demand for foreign goods and industrial inputs.
04CN Exports YoY (AUG) — vs 23.9% prior, Sep 08, 03:00 AM | Indicates external demand conditions and global trade momentum.
05CN Balance of Trade (AUG) — forecast $120.0B vs $112.5B prior, Sep 08, 03:00 AM | Summarizes net export strength and contribution to overall growth.

Upcoming Session: Tickers to Watch

01Lululemon (LULU) — Cut full-year guidance for the third time, citing weaker China demand, softer North American traffic and markdown pressure; the stock fell 17.4% after management guided to mid-teens North America sales declines for Q3. Watch premarket and the open for continued repricing as investors digest the guidance.
02AMC Entertainment (AMC) — CEO Adam Aron condemned Robinhood’s tokenized AMC products and vowed legal and regulatory action, and the stock rose about 6% to roughly 2.69. Anticipate elevated volatility at the open as legal headlines and any Robinhood response are reflected in prices.
03WTI futures (USOIL) — Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and reduced Strait of Hormuz traffic pushed crude nearly 9% for the week, leaving WTI futures near 88.65. Expect active position adjustments at the open as Asian and European desks digest tighter Gulf supply and reposition crude exposure.
04U.S. 2-year Treasury (US2Y) — Stronger August payrolls (nonfarm +162,000; unemployment 4.1%; average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m) lifted market-implied September-hike odds to around 60% and pushed the two-year yield about eight bps above 4.416%. Look for yield volatility and front-end Treasury repositioning at the U.S. open.

Key Takeaways

01U.S. equities have closed lower: Dow -0.5%, S&P 500 (SPX) -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.3% after the payrolls surprise.
02Sector performance has been split, with industrials, technology and utilities outperforming while consumer discretionary, communication services and healthcare lagged.
03Crude oil rose nearly 9% for the week amid renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and reduced Strait of Hormuz traffic.
04Investors pulled $11.12 billion from U.S. equity funds while allocating $48.76 billion into money-market funds.

References