Ryanair cuts FY27 traffic on fuel concerns

Ryanair has cut its fiscal 2027 traffic target to 214 million passengers, down from 216 million. The airline framed the adjustment as a way to reduce exposure to expensive unhedged jet fuel during the winter period, which is typically loss-making. The move reflects a focus on controlling costs rather than pursuing maximum passenger growth at current fuel prices.

Management signalled that the reduction is intended as a one-off change to the winter schedule. By slightly scaling back its growth ambitions, the carrier aims to balance demand with a more predictable cost base in an environment of elevated fuel prices.

Ryanair stated that around 80% of its jet fuel requirements are hedged through March 2027 at approximately $67 per barrel. In contrast, spot or unhedged jet fuel is trading near $140 per barrel. This hedging position is designed to shield the airline from a large portion of current market price volatility.

To further contain exposure to unhedged volumes, Ryanair will keep its winter capacity broadly flat year-on-year. The airline expects that this one-off winter schedule reduction will lower winter losses by about €70 million to €100 million, reflecting reduced flying at times when the cost of unhedged fuel would be most impactful.

As part of its capacity management, Ryanair has already implemented changes in Belgium. The carrier has removed five aircraft from its base at Charleroi. It has also cut around two million seats from its Brussels schedule covering winter 2026 and summer 2027.

These adjustments form part of the broader plan to limit winter flying that would rely more heavily on unhedged jet fuel. By trimming capacity on specific routes and bases, the airline seeks to align its network with its fuel hedging profile and cost objectives.

Despite capacity discipline for future seasons, Ryanair’s recent traffic performance remains strong. The airline reported August passenger traffic of 22.2 million, an increase of 6% compared with the same month a year earlier. Load factor was around 96%, indicating a high proportion of seats sold on operated flights.

Looking ahead, management has warned that if high oil prices persist through to summer 2027, short-haul airfares across Europe are likely to rise materially. The airline also cautioned that some competitors with less fuel hedging in place could struggle to maintain capacity or even survive the coming winter season, highlighting the potential for industry-wide pressure from sustained elevated fuel costs.