WTO Ups Global Goods Trade Outlook

Stacked shipping containers at a busy port illustrating improving global goods trade outlook

Key Points

01WTO lifts global merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9%
02AI-enabling goods drove 47% of trade growth in the first half
03Middle East energy exports fell sharply but global impact was limited
04Merchandise trade now seen growing 4.1% next year

WTO upgrades global trade growth outlook

The World Trade Organization has sharply upgraded its outlook for global merchandise trade, now projecting growth of 3.9% this year. The new estimate compares with a 1.9% growth forecast issued in the spring. The revision follows stronger-than-expected trade performance in the first half of the year and reflects shifting dynamics in technology and energy flows.

Merchandise trade expanded by 3.5% in the first six months of the year, setting the stage for faster full-year growth. The updated forecast suggests that goods trade is gaining momentum despite regional disruptions and ongoing uncertainty in parts of the global economy.

AI-enabling goods power trade expansion

A major driver of the improved outlook is surging demand for AI-enabling products, including semiconductors and servers. The WTO reports that these AI-related goods accounted for 47% of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of the year.

Trade in AI-enabling products rose 67% year-on-year during the period, making them a key contributor to the overall upswing in goods trade. This rapid expansion underpins the stronger growth forecasts and highlights the growing role of technology hardware in global commerce.

Energy trade hit by Middle East disruptions

While technology-related trade has strengthened, energy shipments from the Middle East have been under pressure. Liquefied natural gas exports from the region fell by 47% in the first half of the year, and crude oil exports declined by nearly a quarter.

Despite these steep regional declines, increased shipments from other suppliers helped cushion the global impact. Overall, worldwide LNG trade fell by roughly 1%, and global crude oil trade declined by about 6% in the same period, indicating that alternative sources partly offset the disruption.

Medium-term trade and growth projections

Looking ahead, the WTO now expects global merchandise trade to grow by 4.1% next year, an upgrade from a previous projection of 2.9% issued in March. The stronger trade outlook is accompanied by moderate expectations for the broader economy.

Global GDP is forecast to expand by 2.6% this year and 2.9% in 2027. These projections suggest a gradual acceleration in economic activity alongside continued growth in goods trade, supported in part by sustained investment in AI-related technologies and ongoing adjustments in global energy supply patterns.

Key Takeaways

01Global goods trade is growing faster than previously expected, with a sizable mid-year rebound prompting a higher WTO forecast.
02AI-enabling hardware has become a central engine of merchandise trade growth, significantly influencing global trade patterns.
03Energy trade disruptions in the Middle East have been substantial locally but only moderately reduced global LNG and crude flows due to diversification.
04The WTO’s upgraded trade projections are paired with steady, moderate GDP growth expectations, pointing to a cautiously improving global outlook.

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