Zambia forecasts faster growth from 2027

Zambia’s finance ministry has released a 2027–2029 medium-term budget plan that projects a significant pick-up in economic growth. The document, published at the end of September 2026, sets out an official forecast for gross domestic product to grow by 6% in 2027. If achieved, this would mark the fastest annual expansion since 2021 and signal a strengthening outlook for the country’s economy.

The plan forms the basis for government revenue and spending decisions over the three-year period and provides a macroeconomic framework for policy. By putting numerical growth targets on record, the ministry is signalling its expectations for how the economy will perform under current and planned policies.

A key element supporting the growth projections is the performance of Zambia’s copper (HG1) sector. The finance ministry expects copper (HG1) output in the country, Africa’s second-largest producer of the metal, to surpass 1 million tons. This anticipated increase in production is presented as an important driver behind the stronger GDP figures set out in the plan.

Higher copper output has direct implications for export earnings, fiscal revenues and related economic activity. By linking the growth forecasts to a specific production benchmark above 1 million tons, the budget plan highlights how central the mining industry is to the medium-term economic strategy.

Beyond 2027, the medium-term budget framework anticipates a further acceleration in economic growth. The finance ministry projects that GDP will expand by 7.5% in 2028, building on the 6% pace expected the previous year. This would represent an additional strengthening of activity if the forecasts are realised.

These figures for 2027 and 2028 jointly describe a scenario of rising growth momentum over the medium term. The projections are anchored in the same policy and sectoral assumptions laid out in the budget plan, including the contribution from increased copper production.

By publishing these forecasts in the 2027–2029 budget plan, Zambia’s authorities provide a reference path for fiscal and economic planning. The projected growth rates help guide expectations for government revenue, potential expenditure envelopes and debt dynamics over the coming years.

The emphasis on both macroeconomic targets and sector-specific drivers such as copper output underlines the integrated nature of the strategy. The plan frames how anticipated mining performance and broader economic conditions are expected to interact in shaping Zambia’s medium-term growth trajectory.