AI, EVs and Shifting Narratives in Big Tech

Recent analyst commentary highlights how artificial intelligence, electric vehicles and autonomous driving are reshaping how markets value established names such as Tesla (TSLA) and Apple (AAPL), as well as younger players including Rivian and Lyft (LYFT).

Across these companies, investors are weighing ambitious long‑term technology stories against the performance of core businesses that still generate most current cash flow.

UBS analyst Joseph Spak warned that Tesla’s (TSLA) car business, which funds projects like Robotaxis, the Optimus robot, the Dojo supercomputer and a planned US$20 billion 2026 capital budget, is under pressure even as many investors focus mainly on AI-related milestones.

Spak cut his estimate for Tesla’s first‑quarter 2026 deliveries to 345,000 vehicles, down about 17.5% from the 418,227 delivered in the fourth quarter of 2025 and about 7% below Visible Alpha’s 371,000 consensus, citing weakness across the U.S., Europe and China.

In the U.S., early data for January and February show roughly 78,600 deliveries, down 6% year over year. Across eight major European markets, deliveries in the first two months of the quarter fell about 4%, while in China, domestic retail deliveries declined 6% even as exports were supported by a zero‑interest financing promotion through March 31.

UBS had a sell rating and a US$352 price target on Tesla as of Jan. 29, 2026, implying roughly 8% downside from the March 19 close of US$380.30, with the stock already down 17% year to date.

Separate analysis of Tesla’s long‑term performance notes that shares have risen 2,430% over the past decade as of March 19, turning a US$10,000 investment into more than US$253,000 and helping lift the company’s market value to around US$1.2 trillion.

Revenue growth, from US$4 billion in 2015 to US$95 billion last year, is highlighted as the key historical driver, but the stock’s price‑to‑earnings ratio of about 353 is described as reflecting very optimistic expectations for autonomous driving and robotics that are not guaranteed.

Rivian is preparing to launch its R2 SUV, expected to start deliveries next month, positioning it as an affordable, feature‑rich, long‑range electric SUV priced under US$50,000 that will compete with Tesla’s Model Y, which accounts for more than 70% of Tesla’s vehicle sales.

At the same time, Rivian and Uber (UBER) announced a multi‑year partnership in March 2026 to deploy 10,000 fully autonomous Rivian R2 robotaxis on Uber’s (UBER) platform, supported by up to about US$1.25 billion of investment and a potential expansion to 25 cities by 2031.

Commentary on Rivian’s investment narrative emphasizes that the Uber deal reinforces its autonomy ambitions but is expected to increase near‑term research and development spending and delay the timeline for achieving adjusted EBITDA profitability, keeping liquidity and ongoing losses central risks.

Forecasts cited for Rivian project revenue of US$15.7 billion and earnings of US$788.9 million by 2028, implying 44.9% annual revenue growth and a swing of about US$4.3 billion from a current loss of US$3.5 billion, with some optimistic analysts also highlighting autonomy and software as potential margin drivers.

Lyft (LYFT) announced in March 2026 that it will integrate Nvidia’s (NVDA) AI technologies across its global operations, including predictive modeling, mapping and future Level 4 autonomous fleet architectures powered by Nvidia (NVDA) Drive Hyperion.

The company is linking this AI collaboration with its Freenow acquisition, aiming to pair advanced mapping and rideshare systems with an expanded European mobility network and additional real‑world data.

Lyft’s narrative outlined in recent research targets US$8.7 billion in revenue and US$324.2 million in earnings by 2028, implying 12.3% annual revenue growth and an increase of about US$232 million from current earnings of US$92.2 million, alongside an indicated fair value estimate of US$20.31 per share.

Analysts remain divided, with more cautious forecasts around US$7.8 billion in revenue and roughly US$209 million in earnings by 2028, reflecting concerns about public transit investment, regulatory risk and autonomous‑vehicle disruption to ridesharing.

Apple (AAPL) shares have risen 953% including dividends over the past decade as of March 17, giving the company a market capitalization of about US$3.7 trillion and a current share price near US$248, 11% below its December record.

Between fiscal 2022 and fiscal 2025, diluted earnings per share grew at a 6.9% compound annual rate, while sell‑side consensus expects 11.4% annual EPS growth over the next three fiscal years, a pace some analysts say may need to be higher for the stock to reach US$500 in five years.

For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, ended Dec. 27, 2025, Apple reported revenue growth of 15.7% year over year, driven by a 23.4% increase in iPhone revenue, which lifted diluted EPS by 18.3%. On an annualized basis, quarterly revenue equated to roughly US$575 billion.

Commentary notes that Apple’s price‑to‑earnings ratio of 32.2 is not seen as a bargain and might compress toward 25 to 30 if growth slows, which could make a near‑term move to US$500 per share less likely, though a longer‑term path to that level is viewed as more plausible.