
Key Points
- 01FOMC kept the federal funds target at 3.50–3.75% (9–3), prompting a weaker dollar and long-end Treasury selloff.
- 02Advance Q2 US GDP grew 1.5% annualized, undershooting forecasts, while real final sales and core PCE indicated firmer underlying demand.
- 03AI-heavy big-tech earnings and a chip rally lifted the Nasdaq and boosted tech ETFs, with VGT and SOXX posting strong gains.
- 04USD/JPY (USDJPY) fell below 160 as the yen strengthened over 3% on intervention speculation, driving safe-haven flows into gold and FX volatility.
Global Market Summary
US equities rallied, with the Dow (DJIA) up 1.2%, the S&P 500 (SPX) up 1.7%, and the Nasdaq (^IXIC) up 2.8% as mixed big-tech earnings and a chip rally lifted risk assets. In Europe, the CAC 40 (FRA40) rose 0.9% and the DAX (DAX) gained 0.6%, while the FTSE 100 (UKX) slipped 0.1% as Q2 eurozone GDP printed 0.4% q/q and 1.0% y/y and the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75%. Asian trading was muted, with China’s Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) flat on the day, while FX markets saw sharp moves as USD/JPY (USDJPY) fell below 160 after the yen strengthened more than 3% intraday on intervention speculation.
Top Movers
Technology led sectors, with VGT up about 5.0% and industrials XLI up 1.0%, while consumer discretionary XLY gained 0.7%, financials XLF 0.6%, and energy XLE 0.5%. Defensive groups lagged as communication services XLC fell 2.7%, consumer staples XLP lost 2.2%, health care XLV dropped 1.6%, real estate VNQ declined 1.2%, utilities XLU slipped 0.6%, and basic materials XLB edged down 0.2%. Single-name standouts included FRVO (+30.6%), IREN (+30.5%), MKTX (+29.5%), BHC (+28.9%), and CIFR (+28.1%) on the upside, while ALNY (-28.3%), RTO (-17.6%), GPI (-17.1%), FICO (-17.0%), and CHRW (-15.4%) led decliners.
Macro highlights
The FOMC kept the federal funds target at 3.50%–3.75% with a 9–3 split in favor of no change, while advance Q2 US GDP grew 1.5% annualized versus 2.1% consensus and real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 3.9%, pointing to slower headline growth but firm underlying demand as core PCE held at 3.3% and headline PCE at 3.7% year-on-year. Long-end Treasuries sold off as the 30-year yield reached about 5.22% and the 10-year traded around 4.70%, while the 2-year slipped toward 4.24%; at the same time the DXY dollar index fell roughly 0.5%–0.9% after the Fed decision, Brent crude traded near $90 per barrel alongside a large US crude inventory draw, and gold rose toward USD 4,064–4,150 per ounce on safe-haven flows. In Europe, eurozone Q2 GDP beat expectations at 0.4% q/q and 1.0% y/y, with Germany, France and Italy each up 0.2% and Spain up 0.7%, while the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6–3 vote and projected inflation could approach 4.5% by mid-2027 if oil remains above $100.
News that moved markets
Commodities and FX were volatile as spot gold XAUUSD held near $4,030–$4,100 per ounce after a roughly 2% jump following the Fed hold, Brent crude fell about 1% to $90 a barrel and September WTI futures CLU26 slipped 0.19% with RBOB gasoline RBU26 down 2.29% amid renewed US–Iran strikes, drone attacks on shipping, refinery disruptions and the resumption of Caspian Pipeline Consortium loadings. Currency moves were sharp as USD/JPY dropped below 160, with intraday lows near 158.34 and a more than 3% yen rally stoking speculation of unannounced official intervention after the Fed decision and ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting. Equity sentiment was driven by tech and health care results: AI-heavy big-tech earnings lifted the Nasdaq (^IXIC) 2.8%, the S&P 500 (SPX) 1.7%, the Dow (DJIA) higher and SOXX more than 8%, with chip names such as Micron jumping roughly 16%–18% and AMD about 13%, while Regeneron REGN beat Q2 expectations with $4.29 billion in revenue, $14.29 non-GAAP EPS and about $1.2 billion of buybacks and Hyatt H delivered $1.829 billion of Q2 revenue and $1.12 adjusted EPS but trimmed its 2026 net rooms growth outlook to around 6%. eBay completed its acquisition of Depop and Etsy completed the sale of Depop, while The Farmer Companies closed a $17 million Series A financing led by former Dot's Pretzels CEO Randy Johnson. Announced transactions included Group 1’s agreement to acquire Hennessy automobile dealerships in the Atlanta market, Wealth Enhancement’s purchase of Cloud Investments with over $462 million in client assets, and EQT Real Estate’s planned EUR 532 million acquisition of a 14-asset pan-European logistics portfolio. Additional announced deals featured Truelink Capital’s definitive agreement to buy JT Thorpe Group, corporate actions disclosed by Frasers Group plc under German takeover law, and technology transactions in which Nscale agreed to acquire Anyscale and Soulloop agreed to acquire Astrolumi.AI.
Upcoming Session: Key Events
- 01JP BoJ Interest Rate Decision — consensus 1% vs 1% prior, Jul 31, 03:00 AM | Guides policy stance and borrowing costs, influencing credit conditions.
- 02CN NBS Manufacturing PMI (JUL) — consensus 50.0 vs 50.3 prior, Jul 31, 01:30 AM | Tracks manufacturing activity and demand conditions, informing growth momentum.
- 03EA Inflation Rate YoY Flash (JUL) — consensus 2.9% vs 2.8% prior, Jul 31, 09:00 AM | Signals price pressures and headline inflation direction in coming months.
- 04FR Inflation Rate YoY Prel (JUL) — consensus 1.8% vs 1.8% prior, Jul 31, 06:45 AM | Gauges pace of consumer price growth and inflation trend.
- 05IT Inflation Rate YoY Prel (JUL) — consensus 2.8% vs 3% prior, Jul 31, 09:00 AM | Signals price pressures and consumer inflation momentum in the near term.
Upcoming Session: Tickers to Watch
- 01USD/JPY — Dropped below 160 with intraday lows near 158.34 as the yen rallied more than 3% on speculation of unannounced official intervention after the Fed decision and ahead of the BOJ meeting. Monitor Tokyo/HK open for further repricing and heightened volatility in JPY crosses.
- 02Spot gold (XAUUSD) — Held near $4,030–$4,100 per ounce after roughly a 2% jump following the Fed hold. Asia and European desks may not have fully priced the safe-haven move; expect an elevated intraday range and active repositioning at the open.
- 03September WTI futures (CLU26) — Slipped 0.19% while Brent traded near $90 and RBOB fell 2.29% amid US–Iran strikes, drone attacks, refinery disruptions and resumed Caspian Pipeline loadings. These supply developments may not be fully priced; expect sharp price discovery at the open.
- 04iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) — Rose more than 8% as AI-heavy big-tech earnings and a chip rally lifted the Nasdaq, with Micron up roughly 16–18% and AMD about 13%. U.S. session momentum may carry into the next trading day; watch for continuation or intraday mean reversion in semis.
Key Takeaways
- 01US equities rallied, led by tech as AI-heavy big-tech and chip gains pushed the Nasdaq and major indices higher.
- 02Long-end Treasuries sold off as yields rose, while the 2-year eased after the Fed decision.
- 03USD weakened after the Fed pause while the yen rallied over 3%, sending USD/JPY (USDJPY) below 160 and sparking intervention speculation.
- 04Gold jumped on safe-haven flows and energy markets were volatile; Brent traded near $90 amid strikes, disruptions and a US crude inventory draw.
References
- https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-29/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-30/yen-surge-spurs-speculation-japan-intervened-in-market-again
- https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-30/mortgage-rates-in-us-rise-to-6-66-highest-level-in-a-year?srnd=phx-money
- https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-29/gold-advances-after-federal-reserve-keeps-interest-rates-on-hold
- https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-29/treasuries-jolted-as-fed-hold-trims-september-hike-bets
- https://economist.com/the-world-in-brief/2026/07/30/77ee555b-0a5a-4a7b-88c2-d2a424fc8ead
- https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
- https://cnbc.com/2026/07/29/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
- https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/30/intercontinental-exchange-to-buy-marketaxess.html
- https://cnbc.com/2026/07/30/dollar-steadies-as-fed-holds-rates-us-strikes-iran.html
- https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/gold-ticks-higher-as-markets-brace-for-fed-decision.html
- https://cnbc.com/2026/07/29/treasury-yields-fed-interest-rates.html
- https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp8e6m4rndgo
- https://nytimes.com/2026/07/30/business/oil-stocks-iran-war.html
- https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/30/business/warshs-performance-falls-flat-with-markets-as-fed-holds-rates-steady.html