Market Brief — July 7, 2026

US equities slipped, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) down 0.2%, the S&P 500 (SPX) off 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) losing 1.2% as technology lagged while energy gained. In Europe, the DAX (DAX) fell 1.4% and the CAC 40 (FRA40) declined 0.5%, while the FTSE 100 (UKX) edged up 0.1%. In Asia, the Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) was unchanged on the session at 0.0%.

June US nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 versus roughly 110,000 expected, unemployment held at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings rose 3.5% year-over-year; commentary said the miss pulled the 2-year Treasury yield lower and trimmed the odds of a September Fed hike, while Canada's June Ivey PMI s.a slipped to 56.2 from 58.2, below the 59.1 consensus and 58.7 forecast. The FOMC kept the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% in a 12-0 vote and CME FedWatch put the chance of no change at the next meeting at 73.4%, while the ECB raised rates by 25 basis points and lifted its 2026-28 inflation projections, the Bank of Japan increased its policy rate to 1.00%, and the PBoC left one- and five-year loan prime rates unchanged, relying on short-term refinancing operations. An oil shock from the US Treasury's revocation of Iran's export waiver and reported tanker attacks lifted Brent to about $75.70 and WTI to roughly $69.53-$71.90, left the 10-year US Treasury yield around 4.48%-4.54%, pushed gold down to roughly $4,115-$4,130 per ounce, and coincided with a wider May US trade deficit of $77.6 billion as capital-goods imports rose to a record $128.0 billion.

Geopolitical risk in energy spiked as a Saudi crude tanker and a Qatari LNG carrier were damaged near the Strait of Hormuz and the Joint Maritime Information Center raised its threat assessment for the strait to 'severe', while the US Treasury revoked Iran's oil license, driving Brent up 5.6% to $76.04 a barrel, WTI up 5.4% to $72.25, and average Gulf charter rates to nearly $300,000 per day from below $200,000 the prior week. SpaceX (SPCX) was added to the Nasdaq-100, with J.P. Morgan estimating roughly $4.3 billion of passive inflows into Nasdaq-100 trackers such as QQQ and QQQM as the stock traded around $150-$160 per share with a market capitalization near $2.0 trillion and an expected index weight below 1%. In equity themes, the ECB warned in a July 6 speech that AI-related investment could be highly volatile and even trigger a self-fulfilling crash, Forbes reported on July 7 that AI-favored semiconductor names including AMD, Micron, Broadcom and Marvell Technology declined that day, and Samsung Electronics projected a 19-fold year-on-year jump in Q2 operating profit to about 89.4 trillion won with sales near 171 trillion won even as its shares and the KOSPI fell. Analog Devices completed its acquisition of Empower Semiconductor. Announced transactions included Envirotech Vehicles (EVTV) closing its merger with Azio AI, ADNOC Distribution entering a definitive agreement to acquire Shell Downstream South Africa, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. acquiring Wilson M. Beck Insurance Services, Duck Creek's purchase of Send, and additional technology and logistics deals such as Warehouse Anywhere's acquisition of XPS Solutions, Open Point's acquisition of Converlens, Valstone's acquisition of Nascent, PlanMember Financial's planned purchase of Remotiv Technologies, and NNS buying shares in OCI.